With my premise reasonably in tact for this undertaking by the first bit of research regarding major league attendance, I thought it only prudent to see what is happening in the minor leagues – of which I am a by-product – as I have always thought it to be the most wholesome and value-packed entertainment dollar to be spent.
Yet despite that perceived value and lower cost, minor league baseball will see a similar or worse drop in attendance due to 2009’s macroeconomic conditions?
A confession first. This exercise reminded me of a few things. One, how hard real reporters work to source and produce information. Two, the enormous low-hanging temptation that exists to ‘run with it’ when writer is editor.
I did stumble upon some information that ran counter to my prevailing notion. A nationally-syndicated radio talk show host said the other day that minor league baseball had grown more in popularity (15%) over the past few years than any other sport. Alas, he and Google both could not be more specific in citing a source or better-qualifying the timeframe.
There was also another note produced by a terrific blogger (The Bleacher Report) recently who was able to get quotes from general managers for teams minor leagues across Pennsylvania. The GM’s indicated that 09 attendance was flat to up so far despite the weather because affordable entertainment is as good in a bad economy as it is in a good one.
What do the numbers say across the country? A statistical look paints a mixed picture, couched again by the information that is available and the limited statistical abilities of this reporter.
Here are some starting points:
1. Minor League Baseball announced record attendance for the fifth consecutive year at 43.3 million fans in 2008, up 1.1%
2. On June 9, 2009 Minor League Baseball president Pat O’Conner announced that five of the eight advanced minor league teams* enjoyed increases in attendance to that point year-over-year.
3. Despite this increase average crowd/game stood at 3,924, a mere 30 fewer customers per game than last season.
Attendance figures and games played numbers are available for the eight leagues. The ever-so-simple, wholly unreliable, and yet baseball-nerd friendly ‘At This Pace’ analysis for projected attendance in 2009 as a percentage of 2008 reveals the following:
AAA Int’l League -3%; Richmond Braves relocated to Gwinnett Cty. (suburban Atlanta)
AAA PCL -4%; Tucson Toros relocate to Reno
AA Eastern -1%; no relocations
AA Southern -2%; no relocations
AA Texas -1%; no relocations
A California +9%; no relocations
A Carolina -6%; Two nickname changes, no relocations
A Florida State +28%; Vero Beach relocates to Port Charlotte accounting for nearly half of the over all increase.
What are the possible inferences? The weather might be getting better? The smaller the regional area, the more water the “good entertainment value” theory holds? Ted Gianoulous will be really busy in August?
I am sure it is all and none of the above, but one that can be said is that for the most part, the numbers are trending flat to down.
That’s why I am excited to go see the San Jose Giants, Sacramento Rivercats, Memphis Redbirds, and Tulsa Drillers to find out.
One final note I came across in my exhaustive research. The Southeastern Conference – the college conference whose schools get 80,000 to come see football scrimmages in May – announced record attendance for baseball in 2009 at 1.9 million. That is a near 19% increase over 2008. One of the conference’s members – LSU – took the hardware from the prairie to the bayou in June when it won the CWS.
Good ball has always been a reason to geaux to games.
* For purposes of this exercise, only the eight advanced minor leagues (not low or short season A) were considered.
